Estimate Everything!


Don't do Fermi estimates without confidence intervals. Use Fermihub to keep track of Fermi estimates and their resulting uncertainties.

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Calculate Fermi Problems

Estimating the number of piano tuners in Boston or the value of information from purchasing a microwave? Plug your model into Fermihub and keep track of the outcomes and resulting certainty levels.

Collaborate on Fermi Problems

Want to combine estimates with a friend, and then plug them into another Fermi Problem? Fermihub does that. Share and collaborate on models to help inform others.

Make Important Life Decisions

Combine estimates from all of your models (and those of friends) to make life decisions.



An Example Subgraph


Operations

Operations are simple equations with multiple inputs and one output.


Inputs
Operator
Output
People in Chicago
5,000,000 ± 500,000
Households per person
0.5 ± 0.3
Pianos per Household
0.05 ± 0.03
Times Each Piano is Tuned Per Year
1 ± 0.2
*
Piano tunings per year in Chicago
125,000 ± 187,500

Ozzie's Estimate
80 ± 20
Rahul's Estimate
65 ± 15
|
Time in Minutes to Drive to Meeting
70.4 ± 12

Distributions

Think of Distributions as variables with confidence intervals. The only confidence interval possible right now is one standard deviation, assuming a gaussian distribution.


Independent Distributions (You can change these)
People in Chicago
5,000,000 ± 500,000
Households per person
0.5 ± 0.3
Pianos per Household
0.05 ± 0.03
Times Each Piano is Tuned Per Year
1 ± 0.2
Time to Tune Piano (in hours)
2 ± 0.5
Ozzie's Estimate
80 ± 20
Rahul's Estimate
65 ± 15
Dependent Distributions (Outputs of the operations)
Piano tunings per year in Chicago
125,000 ± 187,500
Time in Minutes to Drive to Meeting
70.4 ± 12